Matchup overview
Tom Aspinall face Jon Jones in UFC Heavyweight action at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, scheduled for Thursday, September 17 at 6:08 PM UTC. Undisputed heavyweight unification. Jones's elite wrestling and fight IQ against Aspinall's speed and finishing rate. First meeting between the two.
Jon Jones enter ranked #1 with a 95% win rate this season, while Tom Aspinall sit at #2 on 88%.
SportsAI.ML model prediction
Our multi-model ensemble makes Jon Jones the projected winner, assigning a 50% win probability against Tom Aspinall. Model agreement on this outcome is 90%, producing an overall confidence rating of 50/100.
This is a closer read, so the projected edge should be weighed against the tighter model spread.
Odds & market value
Jon Jones are priced at 1.95 in decimal terms, a market-implied probability of 51%. Removing the bookmaker margin (the "vig") gives a fair two-way probability of 49%.
Because our model's 50% estimate sits above the 49% fair line, there is a positive projected edge of 0.6 points, translating to an expected value of -2.5% per unit staked.
- Decimal odds: 1.95
- Market-implied probability: 51%
- No-vig fair probability: 49%
- Model probability: 50%
- Projected edge: 0.6 pts
Form & head-to-head
Jon Jones come in on recent form of W-W-W-W-W (most recent first), averaging 4.8 scored and 3.1 conceded per game. Tom Aspinall show W-W-W-L-W, at 5.4 for and 2.9 against.
Across their last 0 meetings, Jon Jones have won 0, Tom Aspinall 0, with 0 drawn.
Verdict
SportsAI.ML leans Jon Jones at 1.95, where the model sees genuine value versus the closing-adjusted fair line. Confidence: 50/100.
This preview updates automatically as odds and model outputs change. It is AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only and is not betting advice.